Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints26
- Isaiah CollierAssists11
- Drew EubanksRebounds7
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints26
- Zion WilliamsonAssists6
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–136
- Q420.0Collin Sexton makes 6-foot dunk123–136
- Q422.0Jose Alvarado bad pass (Collin Sexton steals)121–136
- Q440.1Oscar Tshiebwe makes free throw 1 of 1121–136
- Q440.1Jamal Cain shooting foul120–136
- Q440.1Oscar Tshiebwe makes two point shot120–136
- Q442.1Oscar Tshiebwe offensive rebound118–136
- Q444.1Brice Sensabaugh misses 25-foot three point jumper118–136
- Q447.0Collin Sexton offensive rebound118–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:19Svi Mykhailiuk makes 28-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 3 – 0 NO · UTAH 16% → 20% +4UTAH 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q110:26CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three pointer (Dejounte Murray assists)UTAH 3 – 3 NO · NO 80% → 84% +4NO 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q19:33Keyonte George makes 25-foot three pointer (Drew Eubanks assists)UTAH 6 – 6 NO · UTAH 13% → 16% +4UTAH 13% → 16%+4 pts
- Q22:37Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot three point jumper (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)UTAH 48 – 54 NO · UTAH 8% → 12% +4UTAH 8% → 12%+4 pts
- Q32:51CJ McCollum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jose Alvarado assists)UTAH 74 – 85 NO · NO 90% → 94% +4NO 90% → 94%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NO -11.5
- ML UTAH +500 / NO -800
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -5
- NO 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.3 pts
- NO: Elo 69.9%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- NO -533
- UTAH +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 109.5 – 121.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −70 | +35 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +146 Elo | NO 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 82.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 81.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 108.325th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 117.025th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.7 | Margin | −8.828th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 107.026th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 115.726th of 30 |
| 12th of 30100.9 | Pace | 100.717th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 307–14 | Road vs home | 6–1628th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–18 | 18–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 20–17 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 22–17 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–2 NO in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.