Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints23
- Isaiah CollierAssists11
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds17
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints45
- Dejounte MurrayAssists11
- Dejounte MurrayRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game119–123
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime119–123
- OT1.0Trey Murphy III defensive rebound119–123
- OT1.0Keyonte George misses 25-foot three point jumper119–123
- OT8.0Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2119–123
- OT8.0Jeremiah Robinson-Earl enters the game for CJ McCollum119–122
- OT8.0Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2119–122
- OT8.0Svi Mykhailiuk personal foul119–121
- OT9.0Daniel Theis offensive rebound119–121
- OT11.1CJ McCollum misses 10-foot two point shot119–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:02Brice Sensabaugh makes 23-foot three point jumper (Elijah Harkless assists)UTAH 106 – 105 NO · UTAH 27% → 47% +20UTAH 27% → 47%+20 pts
- Q43:05CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)UTAH 106 – 108 NO · NO 51% → 74% +23NO 51% → 74%+23 pts
- Q433.0Walker Kessler makes tip shotUTAH 110 – 108 NO · UTAH 46% → 81% +35UTAH 46% → 81%+35 pts
- Q416.0Dejounte Murray makes driving layupUTAH 110 – 110 NO · NO 9% → 53% +44NO 9% → 53%+44 pts
- OT34.1Trey Murphy III makes 23-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)UTAH 117 – 121 NO · NO 72% → 98% +26NO 72% → 98%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NO -10.5
- ML UTAH +425 / NO -650
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -4
- NO 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.6 pts
- NO: Elo 65.3%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- NO -455
- UTAH +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 110.0 – 120.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −83 | −15 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +110 Elo | NO 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 79.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 77.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 108.924th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 117.225th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.8 | Margin | −8.328th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 107.626th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 115.727th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.1 | Pace | 100.915th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 25th of 307–15 | Road vs home | 7–1627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–19 | 19–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 23–17 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–3 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.