Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- John CollinsPoints22
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists10
- Walker KesslerRebounds15
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints54
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–123
- Q43.0Luguentz Dort defensive rebound114–123
- Q45.1Lauri Markkanen misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot114–123
- Q411.2Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2114–123
- Q411.2Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2114–122
- Q411.2Lauri Markkanen personal take foul114–121
- Q412.2Collin Sexton personal take foul114–121
- Q415.1Collin Sexton makes two point shot (Keyonte George assists)114–121
- Q421.1Jazz defensive team rebound112–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:09Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)UTAH 68 – 65 OKC · OKC 64% → 72% +9OKC 64% → 72%+9 pts
- Q45:42Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 11-foot pullup jump shotUTAH 103 – 106 OKC · OKC 72% → 81% +9OKC 72% → 81%+9 pts
- Q45:26Elijah Harkless makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 106 – 106 OKC · UTAH 19% → 33% +15UTAH 19% → 33%+15 pts
- Q45:08Jalen Williams makes 8-foot two point shotUTAH 106 – 108 OKC · OKC 66% → 77% +11OKC 66% → 77%+11 pts
- Q44:43Cason Wallace makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)UTAH 106 – 112 OKC · OKC 82% → 92% +10OKC 82% → 92%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -15.5
- ML UTAH +850 / OKC -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11.5
- OKC 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 86.3%, market 89.9%
- Fair odds
- OKC -894
- UTAH +894 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 108.5 – 124.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1733 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | −3 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +320 Elo | OKC 86.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 89.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 89.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 89.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 115.69th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.2 | Points allowed | 103.51st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.8 | Margin | +12.11st of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 113.96th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 101.91st of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.47th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 25th of 307–16 | Road vs home | 18–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–19 | 29–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 28–13 |
| Underdog | 21–18 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–17 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–4 OKC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.