Brooklyn Nets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Tyrese MartinPoints15
- D'Angelo RussellAssists7
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds7
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints27
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists10
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–127
- Q42.1shot clock turnover101–127
- Q427.1Reece Beekman makes free throw 2 of 2101–127
- Q427.1Nets offensive team rebound100–127
- Q427.1Reece Beekman misses free throw 1 of 2100–127
- Q427.1Alex Ducas shooting foul100–127
- Q431.1Tyrese Martin defensive rebound100–127
- Q435.0Ousmane Dieng misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot100–127
- Q450.0Tyrese Martin makes 1-foot layup (Reece Beekman assists)100–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:22Cason Wallace makes 22-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)BKN 0 – 3 OKC · OKC 90% → 93% +2OKC 90% → 93%+2 pts
- Q19:52Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)BKN 2 – 8 OKC · OKC 92% → 94% +2OKC 92% → 94%+2 pts
- Q18:33Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)BKN 2 – 11 OKC · OKC 94% → 96% +2OKC 94% → 96%+2 pts
- Q36:51Cameron Johnson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ziaire Williams assists)BKN 65 – 78 OKC · BKN 2% → 3% +1BKN 2% → 3%+1 pts
- Q35:17Jaylin Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)BKN 67 – 83 OKC · OKC 97% → 99% +1OKC 97% → 99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -16.5
- ML BKN +900 / OKC -1800
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 93%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -14.5
- OKC 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 91.0%, market 90.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -947
- BKN +947 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 100.5 – 117.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1730 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | −39 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | BKN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +402 Elo | OKC 91.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 92.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 92.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 90.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.8 | Points scored | 115.310th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 103.51st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.0 | Margin | +11.81st of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 113.510th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 101.91st of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.1 | Pace | 101.57th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 24th of 309–16 | Road vs home | 17–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–19 | 28–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 27–13 |
| Underdog | 21–16 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21 | 21–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–1 OKC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.