New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Dejounte MurrayPoints26
- Dejounte MurrayAssists7
- Dejounte MurrayRebounds6
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points29
- Desmond BaneAssists14
- Zach EdeyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–139
- Q45.1Jay Huff enters the game for Brandon Clarke126–139
- Q45.1shot clock turnover126–139
- Q428.0Brandon Clarke defensive rebound126–139
- Q431.1Jordan Hawkins misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot126–139
- Q447.1Brandon Clarke makes 3-foot two point shot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)126–139
- Q41:08Jordan Hawkins makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Jose Alvarado assists)126–137
- Q41:10Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound123–137
- Q41:16GG Jackson misses driving layup123–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:21Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)NO 73 – 65 MEM · MEM 39% → 48% +9MEM 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q310:08Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)NO 76 – 73 MEM · MEM 53% → 62% +9MEM 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q39:21Luke Kennard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)NO 76 – 76 MEM · MEM 61% → 70% +9MEM 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q38:31Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 81 – 78 MEM · NO 30% → 39% +9NO 30% → 39%+9 pts
- Q37:30Luke Kennard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zach Edey assists)NO 83 – 83 MEM · MEM 60% → 69% +9MEM 60% → 69%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -9.5
- ML NO +340 / MEM -450
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -8
- MEM 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- MEM: Elo 78.3%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- MEM -360
- NO +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 117.0 – 126.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | +37 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +223 Elo | MEM 78.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 72.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.2 | Points scored | 123.31st of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 115.021st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.0 | Margin | +8.34th of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.6 | Offense rating | 115.25th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 107.55th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.9 | Pace | 107.11st of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–16 | Road vs home | 17–53rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–25 | 29–15 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 20–10 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 25–19 | 29–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–4 MEM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.