Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Jalen WilliamsAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints28
- Deni AvdijaAssists8
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–108
- Q40.0shot clock turnover118–108
- Q422.2Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound118–108
- Q424.1Toumani Camara misses 3-foot two point shot118–108
- Q431.1Toumani Camara defensive rebound118–108
- Q433.1Isaiah Joe misses 23-foot three point jumper118–108
- Q441.1Scoot Henderson makes driving layup118–108
- Q447.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2118–106
- Q447.1Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein117–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:05Deni Avdija makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donovan Clingan assists)OKC 4 – 11 POR · POR 20% → 25% +5POR 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q18:37Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)OKC 4 – 14 POR · POR 25% → 30% +5POR 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q16:01Scoot Henderson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)OKC 10 – 20 POR · POR 26% → 32% +6POR 26% → 32%+6 pts
- Q13:53Jaylin Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 19 – 22 POR · OKC 74% → 80% +5OKC 74% → 80%+5 pts
- Q48:46Jalen Williams makes 25-foot jump bank shot (Alex Caruso assists)OKC 96 – 88 POR · OKC 86% → 93% +7OKC 86% → 93%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -13.5
- ML OKC -900 / POR +600
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11.5
- OKC 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 86.2%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -630
- POR +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 119.5 – 106.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1719 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | +3 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +318 Elo | OKC 86.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 85.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 85.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 107.826th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.1 | Points allowed | 115.223rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | −7.427th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 107.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.5 | Defense rating | 114.525th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.519th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 1st of 3016–5 | Road vs home | 9–1223rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–16 | 24–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–15 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 24–21 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 6–0 POR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.