Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Spencer DinwiddiePoints28
- Kyrie IrvingAssists4
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds19
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints33
- Jalen WilliamsAssists7
- Cason WallaceRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–115
- Q42.0Quentin Grimes makes free throw 2 of 2121–115
- Q42.0Kessler Edwards enters the game for Kyrie Irving120–115
- Q42.0Quentin Grimes makes free throw 1 of 2120–115
- Q42.0Kenrich Williams personal foul119–115
- Q43.1Alex Caruso out of bounds lost ball turnover119–115
- Q45.0Kyrie Irving enters the game for Kessler Edwards119–115
- Q45.0Spencer Dinwiddie turnover119–115
- Q45.0Spencer Dinwiddie offensive foul119–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:38Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DAL 99 – 94 OKC · OKC 25% → 39% +14OKC 25% → 39%+14 pts
- Q46:48Spencer Dinwiddie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)DAL 102 – 96 OKC · DAL 52% → 68% +16DAL 52% → 68%+16 pts
- Q45:16Quentin Grimes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)DAL 105 – 100 OKC · DAL 50% → 68% +18DAL 50% → 68%+18 pts
- Q44:11Spencer Dinwiddie makes 3-foot two point shotDAL 107 – 102 OKC · DAL 60% → 73% +13DAL 60% → 73%+13 pts
- Q43:17Maxi Kleber makes 23-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)DAL 110 – 102 OKC · DAL 77% → 91% +14DAL 77% → 91%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -11.5
- ML DAL +450 / OKC -625
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9
- OKC 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- OKC: Elo 81.6%, market 82.6%
- Fair odds
- OKC -474
- DAL +474 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 106.5 – 118.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1735 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | OKC and DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −51 | +8 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +258 Elo | OKC 81.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 82.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 82.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 82.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 115.89th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 103.71st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +12.11st of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 114.07th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 102.11st of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.57th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 19–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–22 | 29–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–12 | 28–14 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 20–24 | 23–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 7–6 OKC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.
- Jan 17OKC 98 @ DAL 106Picked OKC 57%Miss
- Dec 10DAL 104 @ OKC 118Picked OKC 61%Hit
- Nov 17DAL 121 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 72%Miss
- May 18OKC 116 @ DAL 117PlayoffsPicked DAL 51%Hit
- May 15DAL 104 @ OKC 92PlayoffsPicked OKC 62%Miss
- May 13OKC 100 @ DAL 96PlayoffsPicked DAL 50%Miss
- May 11OKC 101 @ DAL 105PlayoffsPicked OKC 51%Miss
- May 9DAL 119 @ OKC 110PlayoffsPicked OKC 64%Miss