Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Jaden McDanielsPoints27
- Mike ConleyAssists8
- Jaden McDanielsRebounds8
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints36
- Kyrie IrvingAssists9
- Daniel GaffordRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–114
- Q40.0(00:00) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)115–114
- Q40.0Kyrie Irving makes 32-foot three pointer (P.J. Washington assists)115–114
- Q43.0Jaden McDaniels makes free throw 2 of 2115–111
- Q43.0Naz Reid enters the game for Julius Randle114–111
- Q43.0Timberwolves Full timeout114–111
- Q43.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound114–111
- Q43.0Jaden McDaniels misses free throw 1 of 2114–111
- Q43.0Maxi Kleber personal take foul114–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:38Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MIN 89 – 82 DAL · MIN 70% → 80% +10MIN 70% → 80%+10 pts
- Q45:45Kyrie Irving makes 28-foot three pointerMIN 101 – 100 DAL · DAL 25% → 41% +16DAL 25% → 41%+16 pts
- Q45:11Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MIN 104 – 100 DAL · MIN 59% → 76% +17MIN 59% → 76%+17 pts
- Q422.1Kyrie Irving makes 23-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)MIN 112 – 111 DAL · DAL <1% → 27% +26DAL <1% → 27%+26 pts
- Q411.1Mike Conley makes free throw 1 of 2MIN 113 – 111 DAL · MIN 80% → 95% +15MIN 80% → 95%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML MIN -160 / DAL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -0.5
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -145
- DAL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 108.5 – 105.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | −53 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Missing Klay Thompson −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +14 Elo | DAL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.0 | Points scored | 115.210th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 111.812th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +3.48th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 113.78th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 110.411th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.19th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 11th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 13–812th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−53 Elo- Klay Thompson sprained left ankle−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–26 | 21–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–22 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 22–21 | 19–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–6 DAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.
- Dec 25MIN 105 @ DAL 99Picked DAL 65%Miss
- Oct 29DAL 120 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 61%Miss
- May 30DAL 124 @ MIN 103PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Miss
- May 28MIN 105 @ DAL 100PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Miss
- May 26MIN 107 @ DAL 116PlayoffsPicked DAL 55%Hit
- May 24DAL 109 @ MIN 108PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Miss
- May 22DAL 108 @ MIN 105PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Miss
- Jan 31DAL 87 @ MIN 121Picked MIN 80%Hit