Orlando Magic at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints29
- Cole AnthonyAssists7
- Goga BitadzeRebounds9
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints30
- Tyler HerroAssists12
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game119–125
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime119–125
- 2OT17.1Kel'el Ware defensive rebound119–125
- 2OT19.2Franz Wagner misses two point shot119–125
- 2OT24.0Franz Wagner defensive rebound119–125
- 2OT27.0Bam Adebayo misses 15-foot two point shot119–125
- 2OT48.1Franz Wagner bad pass (Kel'el Ware steals)119–125
- 2OT1:02Bam Adebayo makes 15-foot jumper119–125
- 2OT1:22Paolo Banchero lost ball turnover (Kel'el Ware steals)119–123
- 2OT1:35Kentavious Caldwell-Pope enters the game for Jonathan Isaac119–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:55Nikola Jovic makes 32-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)ORL 106 – 106 MIA · MIA 22% → 50% +28MIA 22% → 50%+28 pts
- Q433.1Kel'el Ware makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Nikola Jovic assists)ORL 106 – 108 MIA · MIA 50% → 83% +33MIA 50% → 83%+33 pts
- Q428.1Franz Wagner makes driving layup (Anthony Black assists)ORL 108 – 108 MIA · ORL 15% → 50% +35ORL 15% → 50%+35 pts
- OT58.1Nikola Jovic makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotORL 116 – 116 MIA · MIA 23% → 50% +27MIA 23% → 50%+27 pts
- 2OT1:35Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)ORL 119 – 123 MIA · MIA 61% → 87% +26MIA 61% → 87%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML ORL -115 / MIA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1.5
- ORL 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- ORL: Elo 43.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ORL -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 103.5 – 102.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 205.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | −7 | ORL: Missing Jalen Suggs −1 · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +45 Elo | MIA 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30103.8 | Points scored | 110.721st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.5 | Points allowed | 110.27th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.514th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.8 | Offense rating | 111.515th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.6 | Defense rating | 111.012th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–14 | Road vs home | 11–915th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+1 Elo- Jalen Suggs left quad contusion−1 Elo
Heat
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–22 | 18–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–9 | 12–14 |
| Underdog | 8–13 | 6–12 |
| Overs–unders | 19–28 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–4 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.