Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints35
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds8
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints32
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–121
- Q417.0Trevelin Queen enters the game for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope113–121
- Q417.0shot clock turnover113–121
- Q441.0Malik Beasley makes free throw 1 of 1113–121
- Q441.0Ronald Holland II enters the game for Ausar Thompson112–121
- Q441.0Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.112–121
- Q441.0Marcus Sasser enters the game for Cade Cunningham112–121
- Q441.0Paul Reed enters the game for Jalen Duren112–121
- Q441.0Tristan da Silva enters the game for Jonathan Isaac112–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:38Jonathan Isaac makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)DET 70 – 70 ORL · ORL 46% → 57% +10ORL 46% → 57%+10 pts
- Q34:32Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three point shot (Jalen Duren assists)DET 75 – 70 ORL · DET 51% → 61% +10DET 51% → 61%+10 pts
- Q31:44Ronald Holland II makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Malik Beasley assists)DET 79 – 79 ORL · DET 33% → 44% +11DET 33% → 44%+11 pts
- Q411:06Paolo Banchero makes 23-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)DET 81 – 84 ORL · ORL 55% → 68% +12ORL 55% → 68%+12 pts
- Q42:57Franz Wagner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)DET 105 – 112 ORL · ORL 82% → 94% +12ORL 82% → 94%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -3.5
- ML DET +145 / ORL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1
- ORL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.9 pts
- ORL: Elo 45.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- ORL -154
- DET +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 103.0 – 106.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −17 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +30 Elo | DET 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 103.430th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 104.32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.917th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 105.629th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 106.54th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 7th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 14–913th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–20 | 24–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 16–9 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders | 22–22 | 18–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–5 ORL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.