Detroit Pistons at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints32
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints20
- Amen ThompsonAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–96
- Q46.1Cade Cunningham defensive rebound107–96
- Q49.0Jalen Green misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot107–96
- Q417.0Malik Beasley makes free throw 2 of 2107–96
- Q417.0Malik Beasley makes free throw 1 of 2106–96
- Q417.0Aaron Holiday enters the game for Amen Thompson105–96
- Q417.0Amen Thompson personal take foul105–96
- Q425.0Jalen Green makes 1-foot driving dunk105–96
- Q430.1Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2105–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:34Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)DET 66 – 64 HOU · HOU 50% → 59% +9HOU 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q38:19Cade Cunningham makes 27-foot three pointerDET 69 – 64 HOU · DET 41% → 51% +10DET 41% → 51%+10 pts
- Q32:30Cam Whitmore makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)DET 84 – 77 HOU · HOU 27% → 37% +10HOU 27% → 37%+10 pts
- Q48:46Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 90 – 85 HOU · HOU 24% → 36% +13HOU 24% → 36%+13 pts
- Q48:01Marcus Sasser makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotDET 95 – 85 HOU · DET 74% → 85% +11DET 74% → 85%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -7.5
- ML DET +250 / HOU -300
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -6
- HOU 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 72.7%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -263
- DET +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 108.5 – 116.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +43 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | HOU crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +170 Elo | HOU 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 70.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 114.212th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 107.94th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +6.45th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 112.312th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 106.02nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.4 | Pace | 101.012th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 14–65th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–20 | 24–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 18–12 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–20 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–3 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.