Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints36
- Tyus JonesAssists10
- Nick RichardsRebounds11
Pistons- Tobias HarrisPoints21
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–121
- Q41.1Malik Beasley makes 29-foot three pointer125–121
- Q46.1Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2125–118
- Q46.1Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2124–118
- Q46.1Tim Hardaway Jr. personal take foul123–118
- Q48.1Devin Booker defensive rebound123–118
- Q410.1Cade Cunningham misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot123–118
- Q414.2Grayson Allen makes free throw 2 of 2123–118
- Q414.2Ryan Dunn enters the game for Tyus Jones122–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:05Tobias Harris makes 13-foot pullup jump shotPHX 114 – 113 DET · DET 29% → 43% +13DET 29% → 43%+13 pts
- Q43:37Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three pointerPHX 117 – 113 DET · PHX 58% → 78% +20PHX 58% → 78%+20 pts
- Q42:49Ronald Holland II makes 10-foot dunkPHX 117 – 115 DET · DET 19% → 33% +14DET 19% → 33%+14 pts
- Q42:28Devin Booker makes 11-foot two point shotPHX 119 – 115 DET · PHX 68% → 82% +14PHX 68% → 82%+14 pts
- Q41:05Kevin Durant makes 11-foot two point shotPHX 121 – 117 DET · PHX 76% → 92% +16PHX 76% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DET -0.5
- ML PHX -115 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1
- PHX 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- PHX: Elo 45.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHX -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 113.0 – 113.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | +21 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +29 Elo | DET 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 54.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 112.115th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 113.316th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −1.218th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 110.418th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 111.614th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.1 | Pace | 100.419th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–12 | Road vs home | 10–1019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–26 | 22–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 5–10 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–21 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–1 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.