Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints29
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Hawks- Dyson DanielsPoints20
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Dyson DanielsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–104
- Q413.1Jalen Duren defensive rebound114–104
- Q417.0Dyson Daniels misses 24-foot three point jumper114–104
- Q425.1Jalen Duren makes 1-foot dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)114–104
- Q431.1Jalen Johnson makes 1-foot dunk (De'Andre Hunter assists)112–104
- Q435.0Malik Beasley lost ball turnover (Jalen Johnson steals)112–102
- Q458.0Jalen Johnson makes layup (De'Andre Hunter assists)112–102
- Q41:00Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound112–100
- Q41:03Cade Cunningham misses driving floating jump shot112–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:08Tobias Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 20 – 15 ATL · DET 45% → 52% +7DET 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q12:25Vit Krejci makes 22-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)DET 28 – 24 ATL · ATL 43% → 50% +7ATL 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q135.1Malik Beasley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)DET 33 – 26 ATL · DET 51% → 58% +7DET 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q14.1Simone Fontecchio makes 22-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)DET 36 – 26 ATL · DET 58% → 65% +7DET 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q24:52Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 56 – 43 ATL · DET 68% → 75% +7DET 68% → 75%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -4.5
- ML DET +140 / ATL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- DET +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 114.5 – 119.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +23 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +83 Elo | ATL 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 117.06th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 119.028th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −2.020th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 110.517th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 112.419th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.4 | Pace | 105.22nd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 8th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 11–715th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–20 | 18–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 22–21 | 26–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–3 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.