Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints27
- Trae YoungAssists6
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds12
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints34
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists7
- Josh HartRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–119
- Q416.1OG Anunoby defensive rebound110–119
- Q420.0Trae Young misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot110–119
- Q426.1Karl-Anthony Towns makes free throw 2 of 2110–119
- Q426.1Karl-Anthony Towns makes free throw 1 of 2110–118
- Q426.1Onyeka Okongwu personal foul110–117
- Q427.2Trae Young makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot110–117
- Q438.0Mikal Bridges out of bounds bad pass turnover108–117
- Q455.1Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound108–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:15Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point shot (Josh Hart assists)ATL 62 – 59 NY · NY 49% → 58% +9NY 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q33:54De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 80 – 82 NY · ATL 21% → 30% +9ATL 21% → 30%+9 pts
- Q33:25De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three pointer (Garrison Mathews assists)ATL 83 – 84 NY · ATL 24% → 33% +9ATL 24% → 33%+9 pts
- Q410:53De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 94 – 94 NY · ATL 27% → 39% +12ATL 27% → 39%+12 pts
- Q48:39Cameron Payne makes 26-foot three pointerATL 94 – 102 NY · NY 81% → 89% +8NY 81% → 89%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML ATL +250 / NY -300
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3
- NY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- NY: Elo 61.8%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -263
- ATL +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 115.5 – 124.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | +23 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +83 Elo | NY 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 70.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 117.07th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 111.110th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +5.96th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 118.62nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 112.620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.2 | Pace | 98.227th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 13–811th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–23 | 21–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 19–19 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 26–15 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–2 NY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 5.