Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints25
- Tyler HerroAssists8
- Bam AdebayoRebounds16
Nets- D'Angelo RussellPoints22
- Jalen WilsonAssists8
- Jalen WilsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–97
- Q411.0Bam Adebayo defensive rebound106–97
- Q415.1Keon Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumper106–97
- Q420.1Tyler Herro makes free throw 2 of 2106–97
- Q420.1Tyler Herro makes free throw 1 of 2105–97
- Q420.1Keon Johnson personal foul104–97
- Q429.1Keon Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)104–97
- Q436.0Terry Rozier makes free throw 2 of 2104–94
- Q436.0Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Duncan Robinson103–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:15D'Angelo Russell makes 25-foot three pointer (Nic Claxton assists)MIA 54 – 52 BKN · BKN 23% → 30% +8BKN 23% → 30%+8 pts
- Q38:24Duncan Robinson makes 22-foot three pointer (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 59 – 54 BKN · MIA 69% → 77% +8MIA 69% → 77%+8 pts
- Q37:39D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three pointerMIA 59 – 59 BKN · BKN 28% → 37% +9BKN 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q35:06Tyler Herro makes 22-foot three point shot (Nikola Jovic assists)MIA 68 – 61 BKN · MIA 75% → 82% +8MIA 75% → 82%+8 pts
- Q32:34Nikola Jovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)MIA 73 – 65 BKN · MIA 78% → 85% +7MIA 78% → 85%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -6.5
- ML MIA -275 / BKN +225
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3.5
- MIA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 64.4%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -238
- BKN +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 109.0 – 102.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1380 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | −72 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BKN: Missing Ben Simmons −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +103 Elo | MIA 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 71.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.8 | Points scored | 105.929th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 113.618th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −7.728th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 107.326th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 115.126th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 97.930th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 18th of 309–13 | Road vs home | 5–1428th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−18 Elo- Jimmy Butler III suspended by team−40 Elo
Nets
−72 Elo- Ben Simmons lower back soreness−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–26 | 24–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 6–12 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders | 24–19 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–2 BKN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.