New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints25
- Josh HartAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds16
Nets- D'Angelo RussellPoints23
- D'Angelo RussellAssists10
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–95
- Q42.0Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound99–95
- Q42.0Keon Johnson misses running pullup jump shot99–95
- Q47.0Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 299–95
- Q47.0Precious Achiuwa enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns98–95
- Q47.0Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 298–95
- Q47.0D'Angelo Russell personal foul97–95
- Q49.0D'Angelo Russell enters the game for Tosan Evbuomwan97–95
- Q49.0Tyrese Martin personal take foul97–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:18Keon Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)NY 87 – 88 BKN · BKN 26% → 43% +17BKN 26% → 43%+17 pts
- Q42:59Karl-Anthony Towns makes 9-foot hook shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 89 – 88 BKN · NY 51% → 67% +16NY 51% → 67%+16 pts
- Q42:18Jalen Brunson makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 91 – 90 BKN · NY 49% → 67% +18NY 49% → 67%+18 pts
- Q41:25Jalen Brunson makes 12-foot step back jumpshotNY 95 – 92 BKN · NY 68% → 86% +18NY 68% → 86%+18 pts
- Q452.0D'Angelo Russell makes 27-foot three pointer (Nic Claxton assists)NY 97 – 95 BKN · BKN 2% → 18% +16BKN 2% → 18%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NY -11.5
- ML NY -750 / BKN +475
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6
- NY 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.8 pts
- NY: Elo 72.7%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- NY -507
- BKN +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 115.5 – 104.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +25 | −35 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Trendon Watford −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +170 Elo | NY 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 81.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 80.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 106.629th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 114.019th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.0 | Margin | −7.426th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 107.925th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 115.325th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.3 | Pace | 98.130th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 5th of 3014–8 | Road vs home | 5–1228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−35 Elo- Trendon Watford left hamstring strain−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–22 | 23–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–19 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders | 25–19 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 6–0 BKN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.