Phoenix Suns at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints32
- Tyus JonesAssists7
- Nick RichardsRebounds15
Nets- Keon JohnsonPoints20
- Jalen WilsonAssists3
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–84
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–84
- Q411.1Keon Johnson makes driving dunk (Reece Beekman assists)108–84
- Q419.0Collin Gillespie makes two point shot (Damion Lee assists)108–82
- Q440.2Bol Bol defensive rebound106–82
- Q440.2Reece Beekman misses 23-foot three point jumper106–82
- Q443.0Day'Ron Sharpe offensive rebound106–82
- Q445.1Dariq Whitehead misses driving floating jump shot106–82
- Q446.0Dariq Whitehead offensive rebound106–82
- Q449.1Dariq Whitehead misses free throw 2 of 2106–82
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:22Dariq Whitehead makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)PHX 33 – 27 BKN · BKN 8% → 11% +3BKN 8% → 11%+3 pts
- Q25:54Devin Booker makes 23-foot three point shot (Tyus Jones assists)PHX 36 – 27 BKN · PHX 89% → 92% +3PHX 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q25:11Dariq Whitehead makes 25-foot three point jumper (Reece Beekman assists)PHX 39 – 32 BKN · BKN 7% → 10% +3BKN 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q23:51Dariq Whitehead makes 7-foot two point shotPHX 39 – 36 BKN · BKN 13% → 16% +3BKN 13% → 16%+3 pts
- Q23:25Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point jumperPHX 42 – 36 BKN · PHX 84% → 89% +4PHX 84% → 89%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -12.5
- ML PHX -800 / BKN +550
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -6
- PHX 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.9 pts
- PHX: Elo 72.4%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- PHX -578
- BKN +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 114.5 – 102.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1389 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −18 | −79 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing D'Angelo Russell −29, Cameron Johnson −20, Trendon Watford −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +167 Elo | PHX 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 82.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 81.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 106.429th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 113.718th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −7.327th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 107.725th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 115.125th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.1 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–13 | Road vs home | 5–1328th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−79 Elo- D'Angelo Russell left hamstring - injury management−29 Elo
- Cameron Johnson sprained right ankle−20 Elo
- Trendon Watford strained left hamstring−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–27 | 24–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 6–11 | 22–17 |
| Overs–unders | 20–22 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 1–2 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.