Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints23
- Devin BookerAssists4
- Kevin DurantRebounds7
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints33
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–118
- Q48.0shot clock turnover92–118
- Q432.1Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound92–118
- Q434.1Damion Lee misses 15-foot step back jumpshot92–118
- Q446.1Tristan Thompson personal foul92–118
- Q459.1Damion Lee defensive rebound92–118
- Q41:02Emoni Bates misses 31-foot three point jumper92–118
- Q41:16Monte Morris makes two point shot92–118
- Q41:24Royce O'Neale defensive rebound90–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:12Bradley Beal makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mason Plumlee assists)PHX 18 – 17 CLE · PHX 27% → 33% +6PHX 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q14:58Georges Niang makes 26-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)PHX 18 – 20 CLE · CLE 67% → 73% +6CLE 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q14:09Grayson Allen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 23 – 22 CLE · PHX 27% → 33% +6PHX 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q12:42Sam Merrill makes 23-foot three point jumper (Georges Niang assists)PHX 23 – 27 CLE · CLE 71% → 77% +6CLE 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q211:27Sam Merrill makes 28-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)PHX 27 – 30 CLE · CLE 68% → 74% +6CLE 68% → 74%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -7.5
- ML PHX +230 / CLE -275
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6
- CLE 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 72.0%, market 70.8%
- Fair odds
- CLE -242
- PHX +242 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 115.5 – 123.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1636 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | −5 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +164 Elo | CLE 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 71.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 70.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 122.12nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 112.113th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +10.02nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 120.01st of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 110.210th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 21st of 308–12 | Road vs home | 20–21st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–26 | 28–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 25–12 |
| Underdog | 6–10 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 20–21 | 28–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–0 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.