Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints37
- Devin BookerAssists5
- Nick RichardsRebounds10
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints24
- Scoot HendersonAssists9
- Toumani CamaraRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–127
- Q47.0Jabari Walker defensive rebound108–127
- Q410.0Damion Lee misses 25-foot three point jumper108–127
- Q417.1shot clock turnover108–127
- Q441.1Monte Morris makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot108–127
- Q449.1Suns defensive team rebound105–127
- Q449.1Bryce McGowens misses driving layup105–127
- Q41:01Damion Lee makes two point shot (Collin Gillespie assists)105–127
- Q41:03Collin Gillespie defensive rebound103–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:36Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mason Plumlee assists)PHX 36 – 37 POR · PHX 52% → 59% +7PHX 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q24:46Toumani Camara makes 24-foot three pointer (Deandre Ayton assists)PHX 42 – 49 POR · POR 50% → 58% +8POR 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q22:32Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)PHX 46 – 58 POR · POR 64% → 72% +7POR 64% → 72%+7 pts
- Q36:54Kevin Durant makes 29-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)PHX 64 – 74 POR · PHX 20% → 27% +8PHX 20% → 27%+8 pts
- Q36:03Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)PHX 64 – 77 POR · POR 74% → 81% +8POR 74% → 81%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -4.5
- ML PHX -200 / POR +165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -0.5
- PHX 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.9 pts
- PHX: Elo 48.0%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- PHX -177
- POR +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 115.5 – 111.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | 0 | +25 | PHX: Usual rotation · POR: Missing Robert Williams III −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +14 Elo | POR 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 60.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 108.426th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 114.720th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −6.326th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 108.125th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 114.427th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.0 | Pace | 100.219th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 18th of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 11–1322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+25 Elo- Robert Williams III right hand−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–29 | 27–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–18 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 6–11 | 27–18 |
| Overs–unders | 22–25 | 24–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 5–1 POR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.