Washington Wizards at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints30
- Jordan PooleAssists10
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds11
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints29
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Nick RichardsRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–119
- Q43.1shot clock turnover109–119
- Q427.1Devin Booker defensive rebound109–119
- Q432.0Kyle Kuzma misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot109–119
- Q436.0Wizards Full timeout109–119
- Q436.0Bradley Beal makes free throw 2 of 2109–119
- Q436.0Bradley Beal makes free throw 1 of 2109–118
- Q436.0Jordan Poole personal foul109–117
- Q446.1Kevin Durant defensive rebound109–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:28Bub Carrington makes 24-foot three point shot (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 83 – 87 PHX · WSH 9% → 15% +6WSH 9% → 15%+6 pts
- Q32:04Kevin Durant makes 11-foot step back jumpshotWSH 83 – 89 PHX · PHX 85% → 89% +4PHX 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q31:28Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)WSH 83 – 92 PHX · PHX 89% → 93% +5PHX 89% → 93%+5 pts
- Q42:31Kyle Kuzma makes 3-foot two point shot (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 106 – 111 PHX · WSH 3% → 8% +5WSH 3% → 8%+5 pts
- Q41:57Kyle Kuzma makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 109 – 113 PHX · WSH 2% → 10% +8WSH 2% → 10%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -14.5
- ML WSH +700 / PHX -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -11.5
- PHX 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- PHX: Elo 86.7%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- PHX -738
- WSH +738 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.0 – 124.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1276 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −70 | −16 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +326 Elo | PHX 86.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 89.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 88.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 88.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.7 | Points scored | 112.614th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.2 | Points allowed | 113.719th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−14.5 | Margin | −1.118th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.6 | Offense rating | 113.210th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 114.424th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.7 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–19 | Road vs home | 13–813th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–26 | 16–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 10–16 |
| Underdog | 17–26 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–22 | 20–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–3 PHX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.