LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Ivica ZubacPoints25
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds16
Suns- Devin BookerPoints26
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Devin BookerRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–111
- Q40.0Clippers offensive team rebound109–111
- Q40.1Norman Powell misses 77-foot three point jumper109–111
- Q41.1Norman Powell defensive rebound109–111
- Q41.1Grayson Allen misses free throw 2 of 2109–111
- Q41.1Mason Plumlee enters the game for Tyus Jones109–111
- Q41.1Suns offensive team rebound109–111
- Q41.1Grayson Allen misses free throw 1 of 2109–111
- Q41.1Amir Coffey personal take foul109–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:52James Harden makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 30 – 25 PHX · LAC 49% → 62% +14LAC 49% → 62%+14 pts
- Q11:07Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)LAC 30 – 31 PHX · PHX 37% → 51% +14PHX 37% → 51%+14 pts
- Q48:11Devin Booker makes 31-foot three point jumperLAC 86 – 93 PHX · PHX 69% → 81% +12PHX 69% → 81%+12 pts
- Q440.1Norman Powell makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 106 – 107 PHX · LAC 9% → 33% +24LAC 9% → 33%+24 pts
- Q429.1Bradley Beal makes free throw 1 of 2LAC 106 – 108 PHX · PHX 70% → 85% +15PHX 70% → 85%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -1.5
- ML LAC -115 / PHX -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2
- LAC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- LAC: Elo 57.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -104
- PHX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.5 – 113.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | +3 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +55 Elo | LAC 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.0 | Points scored | 112.714th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.8 | Points allowed | 113.619th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.2 | Margin | −0.917th of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 113.410th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.5 | Defense rating | 114.324th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.8 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 17th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 14–89th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–16 | 16–28 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–5 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders | 17–28 | 20–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–3 PHX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.