Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints33
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds7
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints33
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Grayson AllenRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–113
- Q49.0shot clock turnover121–113
- Q420.1Rudy Gobert enters the game for Jaden McDaniels121–113
- Q420.1Ryan Dunn enters the game for Kevin Durant121–113
- Q420.1Nick Richards enters the game for Grayson Allen121–113
- Q420.1Mason Plumlee enters the game for Bradley Beal121–113
- Q420.1Collin Gillespie enters the game for Devin Booker121–113
- Q420.1Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Royce O'Neale121–113
- Q420.1Jaden McDaniels ejected121–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:14Mike Conley makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 63 – 66 PHX · MIN 31% → 40% +9MIN 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q38:13Jaden McDaniels makes 22-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 66 – 68 PHX · MIN 34% → 43% +9MIN 34% → 43%+9 pts
- Q31:32Grayson Allen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Dunn assists)MIN 77 – 77 PHX · PHX 39% → 51% +12PHX 39% → 51%+12 pts
- Q410:10Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 88 – 79 PHX · MIN 75% → 84% +10MIN 75% → 84%+10 pts
- Q49:40Grayson Allen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)MIN 88 – 83 PHX · PHX 18% → 28% +11PHX 18% → 28%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -0.5
- ML MIN -105 / PHX -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1.5
- PHX 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- PHX: Elo 43.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHX -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 111.5 – 112.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1598 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | −8 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +48 Elo | MIN 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.4 | Points scored | 112.714th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 113.518th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.7 | Margin | −0.816th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 113.410th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.6 | Defense rating | 114.325th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.7 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 7th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 15–89th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–28 | 17–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders | 24–22 | 20–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–3 PHX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Nov 17PHX 117 @ MIN 120Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Apr 28MIN 122 @ PHX 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 58%Hit
- Apr 26MIN 126 @ PHX 109PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Hit
- Apr 23PHX 93 @ MIN 105PlayoffsPicked MIN 62%Hit
- Apr 20PHX 95 @ MIN 120PlayoffsPicked MIN 61%Hit
- Apr 14PHX 125 @ MIN 106Picked MIN 65%Miss
- Apr 5MIN 87 @ PHX 97Picked MIN 51%Miss
- Nov 15MIN 115 @ PHX 133Picked PHX 51%Hit