Atlanta Hawks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- De'Andre HunterPoints35
- Keaton WallaceAssists7
- Clint CapelaRebounds15
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints23
- Anthony EdwardsAssists4
- Rudy GobertRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–100
- Q48.1Rudy Gobert makes 1-foot dunk (Anthony Edwards assists)92–100
- Q412.1Vit Krejci bad pass (Jaden McDaniels steals)92–98
- Q420.0Garrison Mathews enters the game for Clint Capela92–98
- Q420.0Keaton Wallace enters the game for Dominick Barlow92–98
- Q420.0Hawks Full timeout92–98
- Q420.0Hawks defensive team rebound92–98
- Q421.1Rudy Gobert misses free throw 2 of 292–98
- Q421.1Clint Capela enters the game for Mouhamed Gueye92–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:08Zaccharie Risacher makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vit Krejci assists)ATL 35 – 40 MIN · ATL 12% → 16% +4ATL 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q350.0Garrison Mathews makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotATL 70 – 77 MIN · ATL 8% → 13% +5ATL 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q332.1Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 70 – 80 MIN · MIN 87% → 93% +5MIN 87% → 93%+5 pts
- Q411:22De'Andre Hunter makes 7-foot pullup jump shot (Keaton Wallace assists)ATL 76 – 82 MIN · ATL 10% → 15% +4ATL 10% → 15%+4 pts
- Q410:37Julius Randle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)ATL 76 – 87 MIN · MIN 90% → 95% +5MIN 90% → 95%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -10.5
- ML ATL +375 / MIN -500
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -8
- MIN 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 79.0%, market 79.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -396
- ATL +396 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 103.5 – 114.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1594 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −60 | −7 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +230 Elo | MIN 79.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 78.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 78.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 79.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 110.622nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.9 | Points allowed | 108.14th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.6 | Margin | +2.511th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 111.514th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 109.07th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.4 | Pace | 98.725th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 11–1017th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–27 | 18–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 11–23 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 27–18 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–1 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.