Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints25
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Russell WestbrookRebounds6
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints34
- Anthony EdwardsAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–133
- Q40.0(00:00) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)104–133
- Q422.1Rob Dillingham defensive rebound104–133
- Q422.1Hunter Tyson misses 24-foot three point jumper104–133
- Q423.1Hunter Tyson offensive rebound104–133
- Q426.1PJ Hall misses 24-foot three point jumper104–133
- Q440.1Rob Dillingham out of bounds bad pass turnover104–133
- Q443.1Rob Dillingham defensive rebound104–133
- Q445.1Hunter Tyson misses 9-foot two point shot104–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:00Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three pointer (Julius Randle assists)DEN 21 – 27 MIN · MIN 49% → 56% +7MIN 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q130.1Rob Dillingham makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)DEN 31 – 38 MIN · MIN 52% → 59% +7MIN 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q211:20Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)DEN 34 – 40 MIN · DEN 36% → 43% +7DEN 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q29:32Rob Dillingham makes 24-foot three pointerDEN 34 – 45 MIN · MIN 62% → 69% +7MIN 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q246.0Jaden McDaniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)DEN 55 – 67 MIN · MIN 69% → 76% +7MIN 69% → 76%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -3.5
- ML DEN -155 / MIN +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- DEN: Elo 63.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- DEN -143
- MIN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 116.0 – 112.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1641 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +49 | −16 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +93 Elo | DEN 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.0 | Points scored | 110.122nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 108.25th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.4 | Margin | +1.912th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 111.016th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 109.18th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.4 | Pace | 98.725th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 6th of 3014–8 | Road vs home | 10–1020th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–21 | 17–27 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–16 | 11–23 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 27–17 | 23–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 5–7 MIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.
- Nov 1DEN 116 @ MIN 119Picked MIN 59%Hit
- May 19MIN 98 @ DEN 90PlayoffsPicked DEN 52%Miss
- May 16DEN 70 @ MIN 115PlayoffsPicked MIN 51%Hit
- May 14MIN 97 @ DEN 112PlayoffsPicked DEN 57%Hit
- May 12DEN 115 @ MIN 107PlayoffsPicked MIN 56%Miss
- May 10DEN 117 @ MIN 90PlayoffsPicked MIN 62%Miss
- May 6MIN 106 @ DEN 80PlayoffsPicked DEN 59%Miss
- May 4MIN 106 @ DEN 99PlayoffsPicked DEN 58%Miss