Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints24
- Domantas SabonisAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds19
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints35
- Nikola JokicAssists17
- Nikola JokicRebounds22
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–132
- Q40.0Russell Westbrook defensive rebound123–132
- Q41.1Doug McDermott misses two point shot123–132
- Q46.1Nikola Jokic personal take foul123–132
- Q415.1Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2123–132
- Q415.1Doug McDermott enters the game for Keon Ellis123–131
- Q415.1Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2123–131
- Q415.1Malik Monk personal take foul123–130
- Q416.1Keon Ellis enters the game for DeMar DeRozan123–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:19Domantas Sabonis makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 3 – 5 DEN · SAC 19% → 24% +5SAC 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q18:48Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)SAC 7 – 10 DEN · DEN 73% → 78% +5DEN 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q15:51Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julian Strawther assists)SAC 19 – 20 DEN · DEN 68% → 74% +6DEN 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q15:09Russell Westbrook makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)SAC 20 – 23 DEN · DEN 72% → 77% +5DEN 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q14:17Julian Strawther makes 26-foot three pointer (Nikola Jokic assists)SAC 22 – 27 DEN · DEN 75% → 80% +5DEN 75% → 80%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -7.5
- ML SAC +260 / DEN -320
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -6.5
- DEN 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 74.1%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -274
- SAC +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 117.0 – 124.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1637 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +36 | +39 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +182 Elo | DEN 74.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 66.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 120.73rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 115.423rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +5.37th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 116.94th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 111.816th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.2 | Pace | 102.25th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 13–811th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–25 | 22–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 14–20 | 15–16 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–20 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–2 DEN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.