Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints28
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists10
- Paul GeorgeRebounds5
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints27
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–144
- Q410.1Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound109–144
- Q414.2Jeff Dowtin Jr. misses 15-foot pullup jump shot109–144
- Q425.1Pete Nance offensive rebound109–144
- Q426.1Ricky Council IV misses 24-foot three point jumper109–144
- Q438.1Hunter Tyson makes 25-foot three point jumper (PJ Hall assists)109–144
- Q441.1PJ Hall offensive rebound109–141
- Q441.1Hunter Tyson misses 25-foot three point jumper109–141
- Q444.1Jalen Pickett offensive rebound109–141
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:26Eric Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 5 – 6 DEN · PHI 11% → 15% +3PHI 11% → 15%+3 pts
- Q18:26Eric Gordon makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)PHI 8 – 10 DEN · PHI 11% → 14% +3PHI 11% → 14%+3 pts
- Q17:46Russell Westbrook makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)PHI 10 – 15 DEN · DEN 86% → 89% +3DEN 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q26:55Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 44 – 49 DEN · PHI 9% → 13% +4PHI 9% → 13%+4 pts
- Q26:36Julian Strawther makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)PHI 44 – 52 DEN · DEN 87% → 91% +4DEN 87% → 91%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -11.5
- ML PHI +525 / DEN -750
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -10.5
- DEN 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 84.6%, market 84.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -551
- PHI +551 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 110.5 – 122.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1631 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | +32 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +296 Elo | DEN 84.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 79.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 79.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 84.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.5 | Points scored | 120.13rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 115.523rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.1 | Margin | +4.67th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 116.24th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 111.817th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.1 | Pace | 102.35th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 19th of 309–13 | Road vs home | 12–815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–27 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 14–16 |
| Underdog | 8–17 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–19 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.