Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints25
- Stephen CurryAssists12
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds8
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints32
- Malik MonkAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–123
- Q48.2Moses Moody makes driving layup117–123
- Q415.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2115–123
- Q415.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2115–122
- Q415.1Buddy Hield personal foul115–121
- Q415.1De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound115–121
- Q417.1Stephen Curry misses 25-foot three point jumper115–121
- Q421.1Buddy Hield enters the game for Dennis Schroder115–121
- Q421.1De'Aaron Fox personal foul115–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:21Malik Monk makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)GS 99 – 97 SAC · SAC 35% → 49% +15SAC 35% → 49%+15 pts
- Q47:45Keon Ellis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)GS 99 – 100 SAC · SAC 48% → 64% +15SAC 48% → 64%+15 pts
- Q45:19Gui Santos makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)GS 107 – 105 SAC · GS 37% → 55% +18GS 37% → 55%+18 pts
- Q44:03Andrew Wiggins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)GS 113 – 109 SAC · GS 51% → 71% +20GS 51% → 71%+20 pts
- Q42:53DeMar DeRozan makes 14-foot pullup jump shotGS 113 – 111 SAC · SAC 24% → 39% +15SAC 24% → 39%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -7.5
- ML GS +230 / SAC -280
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -6
- SAC 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- SAC: Elo 71.6%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- SAC -243
- GS +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 112.0 – 119.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −32 | +31 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +161 Elo | SAC 71.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 68.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.8 | Points scored | 116.77th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 113.920th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +2.811th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 113.97th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 111.114th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 101.28th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 12th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 12–1218th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–22 | 18–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 14–19 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–24 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–3 SAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.