Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints24
- Scottie BarnesAssists7
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Hawks- Vit KrejciPoints20
- Vit KrejciAssists7
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–94
- Q49.0Raptors defensive team rebound117–94
- Q411.0Dominick Barlow misses 23-foot three point jumper117–94
- Q415.1Dominick Barlow defensive rebound117–94
- Q415.2Orlando Robinson misses tip shot117–94
- Q415.2Orlando Robinson offensive rebound117–94
- Q421.1Gradey Dick misses 24-foot three point jumper117–94
- Q440.1David Roddy makes driving layup (Trae Young assists)117–94
- Q447.1Daeqwon Plowden defensive rebound117–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:36Onyeka Okongwu makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)TOR 48 – 46 ATL · ATL 48% → 56% +8ATL 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q22:16RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 51 – 46 ATL · TOR 44% → 52% +8TOR 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q39:08RJ Barrett makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 60 – 52 ATL · TOR 55% → 64% +9TOR 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q38:29Trae Young makes 26-foot three pointerTOR 62 – 55 ATL · ATL 30% → 38% +9ATL 30% → 38%+9 pts
- Q37:49RJ Barrett makes 23-foot three point shot (Davion Mitchell assists)TOR 67 – 55 ATL · TOR 68% → 76% +8TOR 68% → 76%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -5.5
- ML TOR +180 / ATL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4.5
- ATL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 67.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -191
- TOR +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 113.5 – 119.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +3 | TOR: Missing Kelly Olynyk −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +123 Elo | ATL 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 67.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.2 | Points scored | 116.87th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 119.028th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.8 | Margin | −2.221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 110.219th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 112.319th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.1 | Pace | 105.22nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–19 | Road vs home | 11–915th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+4 Elo- Kelly Olynyk right calf−6 Elo
Hawks
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–18 | 18–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 25–16 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 23–21 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–3 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.