Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints25
- Davion MitchellAssists7
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds9
Hawks- Bogdan BogdanovicPoints23
- Trae YoungAssists13
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–119
- Q40.0Hawks offensive team rebound122–119
- Q40.1Onyeka Okongwu misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot122–119
- Q42.1Hawks Full timeout122–119
- Q42.1Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Dominick Barlow122–119
- Q42.1Hawks Full timeout122–119
- Q42.1Jakob Poeltl makes free throw 2 of 2122–119
- Q42.1Bruce Brown enters the game for Gradey Dick121–119
- Q42.1Dominick Barlow enters the game for Bogdan Bogdanovic121–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:50Scottie Barnes makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotTOR 112 – 113 ATL · TOR 20% → 38% +19TOR 20% → 38%+19 pts
- Q42:51RJ Barrett makes 24-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)TOR 118 – 115 ATL · TOR 46% → 71% +25TOR 46% → 71%+25 pts
- Q42:29Dyson Daniels makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (De'Andre Hunter assists)TOR 118 – 117 ATL · ATL 27% → 44% +17ATL 27% → 44%+17 pts
- Q455.1Scottie Barnes makes 9-foot pullup jump shotTOR 120 – 117 ATL · TOR 63% → 86% +23TOR 63% → 86%+23 pts
- Q440.2Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 7-foot two point shot (Trae Young assists)TOR 120 – 119 ATL · ATL 10% → 35% +25ATL 10% → 35%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -5.5
- ML TOR +175 / ATL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3.5
- ATL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 64.0%, market 65.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -188
- TOR +188 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 116.0 – 121.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +7 | +7 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Larry Nance Jr. −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +100 Elo | ATL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 116.77th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.9 | Points allowed | 118.928th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.0 | Margin | −2.221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 110.119th of 30 |
| 28th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 112.219th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.1 | Pace | 105.32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–19 | Road vs home | 11–815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+7 Elo- Larry Nance Jr. right hand surgery−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–18 | 18–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 24–16 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 22–21 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–3 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.