Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints31
- Devin BookerAssists11
- Nick RichardsRebounds16
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints17
- Andrew WigginsAssists6
- Andrew WigginsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–105
- Q412.2shot clock turnover130–105
- Q437.1Gui Santos makes free throw 2 of 2130–105
- Q437.1Warriors offensive team rebound130–104
- Q437.1Gui Santos misses free throw 1 of 2130–104
- Q437.1Monte Morris loose ball foul130–104
- Q437.1Warriors offensive team rebound130–104
- Q440.1Lindy Waters III misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot130–104
- Q453.1Lindy Waters III defensive rebound130–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:33Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 20 – 18 GS · PHX 54% → 60% +7PHX 54% → 60%+7 pts
- Q12:41Moses Moody makes 26-foot three point shot (Dennis Schroder assists)PHX 25 – 24 GS · GS 35% → 42% +7GS 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q12:16Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)PHX 25 – 27 GS · GS 42% → 49% +7GS 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q11:51Grayson Allen makes 29-foot three pointer (Nick Richards assists)PHX 28 – 27 GS · PHX 51% → 58% +7PHX 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q211:36Quinten Post makes 27-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)PHX 32 – 30 GS · GS 33% → 40% +7GS 33% → 40%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -2.5
- ML PHX -145 / GS +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1
- PHX 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.1 pts
- PHX: Elo 45.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHX -130
- GS +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 116.0 – 113.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | −16 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +32 Elo | GS 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 51.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 111.418th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 111.29th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 110.518th of 30 |
| 26th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 110.28th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 100.618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 20th of 309–13 | Road vs home | 14–1218th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–29 | 24–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 6–11 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–25 | 22–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 4–2 GS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.