Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints30
- Isaiah CollierAssists9
- Micah PotterRebounds7
Warriors- Dennis SchroderPoints23
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists6
- Kevon LooneyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–114
- Q422.0Isaiah Collier lost ball turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)103–114
- Q427.1Isaiah Collier defensive rebound103–114
- Q430.1Brandin Podziemski misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot103–114
- Q450.1Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound103–114
- Q452.1Collin Sexton misses two point shot103–114
- Q41:01Keyonte George defensive rebound103–114
- Q41:04Dennis Schroder misses 28-foot three point jumper103–114
- Q41:06Gui Santos offensive rebound103–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:45Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brice Sensabaugh assists)UTAH 95 – 99 GS · UTAH 11% → 20% +9UTAH 11% → 20%+9 pts
- Q47:20Brice Sensabaugh makes two point shot (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 97 – 99 GS · UTAH 20% → 28% +8UTAH 20% → 28%+8 pts
- Q46:14Brice Sensabaugh makes two point shot (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 99 – 100 GS · UTAH 24% → 33% +10UTAH 24% → 33%+10 pts
- Q45:43Moses Moody makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)UTAH 99 – 103 GS · GS 67% → 81% +15GS 67% → 81%+15 pts
- Q44:16Andrew Wiggins makes layup (Moses Moody assists)UTAH 101 – 107 GS · GS 83% → 90% +8GS 83% → 90%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- GS -10.5
- ML UTAH +350 / GS -470
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -5.5
- GS 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- GS: Elo 70.0%, market 78.8%
- Fair odds
- GS -371
- UTAH +371 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 105.0 – 115.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −54 | −75 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Stephen Curry −49 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +148 Elo | GS 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 81.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 80.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 78.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 111.319th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 111.510th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.3 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.4 | Offense rating | 110.318th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 110.410th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.618th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–18 | Road vs home | 12–1219th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−75 Elo- Stephen Curry knee soreness−49 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–21 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 22–20 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 25–19 | 21–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–5 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.