Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints24
- Zach LaVineAssists4
- Josh GiddeyRebounds11
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints21
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Kevon LooneyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–131
- Q410.1Quinten Post defensive rebound106–131
- Q413.0Jevon Carter misses 23-foot three point jumper106–131
- Q414.1Matas Buzelis offensive rebound106–131
- Q416.1Matas Buzelis misses driving layup106–131
- Q421.1Jalen Smith offensive rebound106–131
- Q424.0Jevon Carter misses driving layup106–131
- Q434.1Lindy Waters III makes 27-foot three point jumper (Quinten Post assists)106–131
- Q453.1Jalen Smith makes free throw 2 of 2106–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q246.1Zach LaVine makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotCHI 64 – 60 GS · CHI 46% → 54% +9CHI 46% → 54%+9 pts
- Q232.1Gui Santos makes 24-foot three point jumper (Quinten Post assists)CHI 64 – 63 GS · GS 46% → 54% +9GS 46% → 54%+9 pts
- Q36:19Gary Payton II makes 25-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)CHI 74 – 76 GS · GS 53% → 63% +10GS 53% → 63%+10 pts
- Q35:47Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)CHI 75 – 79 GS · GS 60% → 69% +10GS 60% → 69%+10 pts
- Q32:57Moses Moody makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)CHI 78 – 84 GS · GS 66% → 76% +10GS 66% → 76%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -4.5
- ML CHI +140 / GS -170
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- GS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- GS: Elo 50.5%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- GS -151
- CHI +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 114.0 – 118.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +14 | −34 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +4 Elo | GS 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 110.920th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 111.410th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.9 | Margin | −0.515th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 109.820th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 110.310th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.1 | Pace | 100.616th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 11–1119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–22 | 21–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 20–24 | 19–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–1 GS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.