Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints36
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints20
- Stephen CurryAssists9
- Andrew WigginsRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–108
- Q416.0Max Christie defensive rebound118–108
- Q417.1Lindy Waters III misses 2-foot tip shot118–108
- Q418.1Lindy Waters III offensive rebound118–108
- Q419.1Buddy Hield misses 26-foot three point jumper118–108
- Q423.1Jaxson Hayes bad pass (Brandin Podziemski steals)118–108
- Q424.1Moses Moody makes free throw 2 of 2118–108
- Q424.1Jaxson Hayes enters the game for LeBron James118–107
- Q424.1Max Christie enters the game for Dorian Finney-Smith118–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25.1Moses Moody makes 22-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)LAL 59 – 58 GS · GS 38% → 46% +9GS 38% → 46%+9 pts
- Q311:13Buddy Hield makes 22-foot three point shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)LAL 59 – 61 GS · GS 46% → 55% +9GS 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q38.1Dalton Knecht makes 22-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 89 – 80 GS · LAL 74% → 83% +9LAL 74% → 83%+9 pts
- Q30.1Andrew Wiggins makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Brandin Podziemski assists)LAL 89 – 83 GS · GS 17% → 26% +9GS 17% → 26%+9 pts
- Q49:11Dorian Finney-Smith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jarred Vanderbilt assists)LAL 96 – 87 GS · LAL 77% → 86% +9LAL 77% → 86%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- GS -0.5
- ML LAL -115 / GS -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- LAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 50.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -104
- GS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 110.5 – 111.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | −24 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +6 Elo | LAL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 50.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 111.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 111.310th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.5 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 110.219th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 110.29th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.3 | Pace | 100.717th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 21st of 308–12 | Road vs home | 12–1119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–21 | 22–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–12 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–23 | 20–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–3 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.