Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Kristaps PorzingisPoints22
- Jayson TatumAssists5
- Jaylen BrownRebounds8
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints24
- Austin ReavesAssists6
- LeBron JamesRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–117
- Q40.0(00:00) [Celtics] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)96–117
- Q40.2Jaden Springer makes 28-foot three pointer96–117
- Q46.1shot clock turnover93–117
- Q430.1Payton Pritchard makes two point shot (Neemias Queta assists)93–117
- Q433.1Shake Milton lost ball turnover (Neemias Queta steals)91–117
- Q448.1Dalton Knecht defensive rebound91–117
- Q451.0Payton Pritchard misses 16-foot step back jumpshot91–117
- Q41:00Celtics defensive team rebound91–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:58Gabe Vincent makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)BOS 22 – 28 LAL · LAL 40% → 46% +7LAL 40% → 46%+7 pts
- Q211:05Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 26 – 34 LAL · BOS 40% → 47% +7BOS 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q29:45Gabe Vincent makes 22-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)BOS 28 – 37 LAL · LAL 49% → 56% +7LAL 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q39:25Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)BOS 56 – 72 LAL · LAL 76% → 82% +7LAL 76% → 82%+7 pts
- Q37:19Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 62 – 74 LAL · BOS 18% → 25% +7BOS 18% → 25%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -6.5
- ML BOS -250 / LAL +205
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -2.5
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.7%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -218
- LAL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 112.5 – 106.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1628 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +6 | −25 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +75 Elo | BOS 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 67.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30117.7 | Points scored | 111.218th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 113.217th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.5 | Margin | −2.020th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 111.713th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 113.722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.2 | Pace | 99.422nd of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3016–5 | Road vs home | 15–64th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–26 | 20–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–24 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–25 | 19–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.