Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints52
- Isaiah HartensteinAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds18
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints27
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Gary Payton IIRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–116
- Q44.1Cason Wallace bad pass (Andrew Wiggins steals)109–116
- Q46.1Cason Wallace defensive rebound109–116
- Q49.1Stephen Curry misses 28-foot three point shot109–116
- Q416.1Cason Wallace enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein109–116
- Q416.1Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander109–116
- Q416.1Buddy Hield enters the game for Kevon Looney109–116
- Q416.1Brandin Podziemski enters the game for Gary Payton II109–116
- Q416.1Warriors Full timeout109–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:04Stephen Curry makes 32-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)OKC 84 – 87 GS · GS 35% → 48% +13GS 35% → 48%+13 pts
- Q410:12Isaiah Joe makes 28-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 89 – 89 GS · OKC 51% → 64% +13OKC 51% → 64%+13 pts
- Q49:23Stephen Curry makes 34-foot three point jumper (Gary Payton II assists)OKC 91 – 92 GS · GS 28% → 41% +13GS 28% → 41%+13 pts
- Q42:06Jalen Williams makes driving layupOKC 103 – 106 GS · OKC 14% → 28% +14OKC 14% → 28%+14 pts
- Q41:52Stephen Curry makes 33-foot three pointer (Dennis Schroder assists)OKC 103 – 109 GS · GS 74% → 92% +19GS 74% → 92%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -9.5
- ML OKC -450 / GS +340
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9.5
- OKC 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 82.8%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -360
- GS +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 117.0 – 107.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1722 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +20 | −18 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +273 Elo | OKC 82.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 77.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 78.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 111.318th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.2 | Points allowed | 111.310th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.6 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 110.418th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.7 | Defense rating | 110.39th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.518th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 1st of 3017–5 | Road vs home | 13–1218th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–17 | 23–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–16 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 25–21 | 21–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 4–2 GS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.