Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints34
- Kevin DurantAssists5
- Mason PlumleeRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints25
- Anfernee SimonsAssists10
- Deandre AytonRebounds20
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game119–121
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime119–121
- OT3.0Jerami Grant offensive rebound119–121
- OT3.0Deandre Ayton misses free throw 2 of 2119–121
- OT3.0Grayson Allen enters the game for Ryan Dunn119–121
- OT3.0Deandre Ayton makes free throw 1 of 2119–121
- OT3.0Ryan Dunn personal take foul119–120
- OT3.0Deandre Ayton defensive rebound119–120
- OT4.1Devin Booker misses free throw 3 of 3119–120
- OT4.1Ryan Dunn enters the game for Mason Plumlee119–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:20Deandre Ayton makes alley oop dunk shot (Anfernee Simons assists)PHX 102 – 103 POR · POR 35% → 60% +24POR 35% → 60%+24 pts
- Q442.0Anfernee Simons makes 23-foot step back jumpshotPHX 104 – 105 POR · POR 32% → 65% +33POR 32% → 65%+33 pts
- Q414.1Jerami Grant makes 2-foot driving dunkPHX 104 – 107 POR · POR 76% → 99% +22POR 76% → 99%+22 pts
- Q42.1Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 107 – 107 POR · PHX <1% → 50% +50PHX <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT32.1Bradley Beal makes layup (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 115 – 116 POR · PHX 7% → 32% +25PHX 7% → 32%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -4.5
- ML PHX -200 / POR +170
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -0.5
- PHX 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.2 pts
- PHX: Elo 47.1%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- PHX -180
- POR +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 117.0 – 112.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | +37 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +20 Elo | POR 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 62.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 108.826th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 114.620th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −5.826th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 108.425th of 30 |
| 27th of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 114.225th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.1 | Pace | 100.219th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 19th of 3010–14 | Road vs home | 12–1322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–30 | 28–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–19 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 6–11 | 28–18 |
| Overs–unders | 23–25 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 5–2 POR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.