Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints32
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints37
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Tyrese HaliburtonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–133
- Q423.2Marcus Sasser makes 15-foot running pullup jump shot (Ronald Holland II assists)119–133
- Q428.1Ronald Holland II defensive rebound117–133
- Q432.1James Johnson misses 26-foot three point jumper117–133
- Q456.1Ronald Holland II makes 26-foot three point jumper (Wendell Moore Jr. assists)117–133
- Q41:02Johnny Furphy personal foul114–133
- Q41:15RayJ Dennis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)114–133
- Q41:30Paul Reed makes 3-foot dunk (Bobi Klintman assists)114–130
- Q41:47Marcus Sasser enters the game for Ausar Thompson112–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:05Ben Sheppard makes 23-foot running pullup jump shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)DET 82 – 90 IND · IND 75% → 82% +8IND 75% → 82%+8 pts
- Q34:16Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 87 – 92 IND · DET 17% → 25% +8DET 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q33:21Ben Sheppard makes 27-foot three point shot (T.J. McConnell assists)DET 88 – 95 IND · IND 72% → 81% +8IND 72% → 81%+8 pts
- Q32:31Thomas Bryant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)DET 90 – 98 IND · IND 75% → 83% +8IND 75% → 83%+8 pts
- Q410:31Jarace Walker makes 27-foot three point jumper (Thomas Bryant assists)DET 96 – 107 IND · IND 86% → 92% +6IND 86% → 92%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- IND -5.5
- ML DET +175 / IND -210
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5
- IND 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- IND: Elo 69.3%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- IND -186
- DET +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 113.5 – 119.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +6 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +141 Elo | IND 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 70.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 115.59th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 114.821st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.813th of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 113.79th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 113.020th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.013th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 10th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 12–711th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–22 | 23–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 12–13 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–23 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–6 IND in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.