Indiana Pacers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints28
- Andrew NembhardAssists9
- Pascal SiakamRebounds11
Spurs- Harrison BarnesPoints25
- Chris PaulAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–98
- Q421.1Jarace Walker defensive rebound136–98
- Q424.0Malaki Branham misses 15-foot pullup jump shot136–98
- Q438.2Stephon Castle defensive rebound136–98
- Q442.1Jarace Walker misses 26-foot three point jumper136–98
- Q446.0Pacers offensive team rebound136–98
- Q449.1Thomas Bryant misses 25-foot three point jumper136–98
- Q459.1Malaki Branham bad pass (Thomas Bryant steals)136–98
- Q41:09Johnny Furphy makes free throw 2 of 2136–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:21Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)IND 76 – 72 SA · SA 24% → 33% +9SA 24% → 33%+9 pts
- Q34:42Obi Toppin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 79 – 77 SA · IND 51% → 61% +10IND 51% → 61%+10 pts
- Q34:16Chris Paul makes 27-foot three point shotIND 79 – 80 SA · SA 39% → 49% +11SA 39% → 49%+11 pts
- Q32:53Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three pointer (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 84 – 80 SA · IND 58% → 68% +11IND 58% → 68%+11 pts
- Q32:25Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 87 – 80 SA · IND 68% → 78% +9IND 68% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- IND -2.5
- ML IND -145 / SA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2
- IND 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- IND: Elo 58.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- IND -133
- SA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 116.0 – 113.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | −9 | +26 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +56 Elo | IND 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 112.315th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 113.017th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.716th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 110.917th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 111.615th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 100.815th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–22 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders | 24–20 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–2 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.