San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints30
- Tre JonesAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds11
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints24
- Andrew NembhardAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds4
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game140–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter140–110
- Q42.1shot clock turnover140–110
- Q426.0Zach Collins defensive rebound140–110
- Q428.2Ben Sheppard misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot140–110
- Q432.0Sidy Cissoko makes two point shot (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)140–110
- Q437.1Jarace Walker lost ball turnover (Blake Wesley steals)138–110
- Q444.1RayJ Dennis offensive rebound138–110
- Q447.1Jarace Walker misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot138–110
- Q456.0Sandro Mamukelashvili makes dunk (Blake Wesley assists)138–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:51Tre Jones makes three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 50 – 48 IND · SA 43% → 51% +8SA 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q22:46Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three pointerSA 54 – 53 IND · IND 43% → 51% +8IND 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q311:28Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 63 – 57 IND · SA 55% → 64% +9SA 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q311:12Myles Turner makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)SA 63 – 60 IND · IND 36% → 45% +9IND 36% → 45%+9 pts
- Q310:55Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 66 – 60 IND · SA 55% → 64% +9SA 55% → 64%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- IND -2.5
- ML SA +115 / IND -135
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5
- IND 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.8 pts
- IND: Elo 69.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- IND -124
- SA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 113.5 – 116.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | +14 | −5 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +139 Elo | IND 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 65.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30111.6 | Points scored | 115.210th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 114.621st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.614th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 113.59th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 112.920th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.8 | Pace | 100.913th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–21 | 22–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 12–14 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 23–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 1–1 IND in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.