Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints22
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds16
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints22
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–110
- Q43.2shot clock turnover91–110
- Q428.0Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound91–110
- Q430.1Marcus Sasser misses 22-foot three point jumper91–110
- Q437.0Georges Niang bad pass (Paul Reed steals)91–110
- Q439.1Georges Niang offensive rebound91–110
- Q442.1Georges Niang misses driving floating jump shot91–110
- Q41:02Cavaliers defensive team rebound91–110
- Q41:06Ronald Holland II misses 25-foot three point jumper91–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:47Donovan Mitchell makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotDET 2 – 8 CLE · CLE 82% → 87% +5CLE 82% → 87%+5 pts
- Q18:16Jalen Duren makes 6-foot two point shot (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 8 – 10 CLE · DET 13% → 19% +5DET 13% → 19%+5 pts
- Q14.2Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three pointer (Isaiah Stewart assists)DET 23 – 26 CLE · DET 14% → 19% +4DET 14% → 19%+4 pts
- Q210:08Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 26 – 28 CLE · DET 16% → 21% +5DET 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q26:36Max Strus makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaylon Tyson assists)DET 28 – 35 CLE · CLE 82% → 87% +5CLE 82% → 87%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -10.5
- ML DET +360 / CLE -500
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -7.5
- CLE 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 77.4%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -383
- DET +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 112.0 – 122.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1623 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +48 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +214 Elo | CLE 77.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 82.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 81.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 122.02nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 112.614th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +9.52nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 120.11st of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 110.710th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.76th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 8th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 21–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–21 | 29–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 26–14 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 23–22 | 30–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–5 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.