Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints37
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
76ers- Paul GeorgePoints30
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–132
- Q40.0Cavaliers offensive team rebound129–132
- Q40.0Donovan Mitchell misses 39-foot three point shot129–132
- Q41.1Justin Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2129–132
- Q41.1Jarrett Allen enters the game for Max Strus129–131
- Q41.176ers offensive team rebound129–131
- Q41.1Justin Edwards misses free throw 1 of 2129–131
- Q41.1Donovan Mitchell personal take foul129–131
- Q43.1Donovan Mitchell makes 29-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)129–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:20Eric Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)CLE 116 – 117 PHI · PHI 29% → 46% +18PHI 29% → 46%+18 pts
- Q44:31Paul George makes 24-foot three pointerCLE 116 – 120 PHI · PHI 48% → 67% +20PHI 48% → 67%+20 pts
- Q43:19Eric Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)CLE 116 – 123 PHI · PHI 72% → 88% +16PHI 72% → 88%+16 pts
- Q412.0Ty Jerome makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 126 – 127 PHI · CLE <1% → 22% +22CLE <1% → 22%+22 pts
- Q49.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2CLE 126 – 128 PHI · PHI 81% → 96% +15PHI 81% → 96%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -9.5
- ML CLE -425 / PHI +320
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8.5
- CLE 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 79.2%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -340
- PHI +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 119.5 – 110.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1642 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | −42 | CLE: Usual rotation · PHI: Missing Andre Drummond −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −24 | CLE crossed 1 time zone and PHI crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +232 Elo | CLE 79.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 80.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 80.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.7 | Points scored | 107.527th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 112.413th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.1 | Margin | −4.923rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.7 | Offense rating | 108.424th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 113.320th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.127th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3015–5 | Road vs home | 6–1327th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−42 Elo- Andre Drummond left toe−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–14 | 14–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 26–12 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 8–18 |
| Overs–unders | 28–15 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–2 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.