Cleveland Cavaliers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints26
- Darius GarlandAssists5
- Jarrett AllenRebounds13
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints26
- Fred VanVleetAssists5
- Amen ThompsonRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–109
- Q40.0Darius Garland offensive rebound108–109
- Q42.0Donovan Mitchell misses 22-foot three point jumper108–109
- Q42.1Tari Eason flagrant foul type 1108–109
- Q42.1Darius Garland makes free throw flagrant 3 of 3108–109
- Q42.1Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Alperen Sengun107–109
- Q42.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound107–109
- Q42.1Darius Garland misses free throw flagrant 2 of 3107–109
- Q42.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound107–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:35Fred VanVleet makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)CLE 104 – 101 HOU · HOU 12% → 28% +16HOU 12% → 28%+16 pts
- Q42:51Fred VanVleet makes 29-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)CLE 104 – 104 HOU · HOU 26% → 50% +24HOU 26% → 50%+24 pts
- Q42:12Darius Garland makes 28-foot three pointerCLE 107 – 105 HOU · CLE 41% → 69% +28CLE 41% → 69%+28 pts
- Q41:06Alperen Sengun makes 4-foot hook shot (Fred VanVleet assists)CLE 107 – 107 HOU · HOU 24% → 50% +25HOU 24% → 50%+25 pts
- Q44.1Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 2CLE 107 – 108 HOU · HOU 50% → 92% +42HOU 50% → 92%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -0.5
- ML CLE -115 / HOU -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 115.0 – 115.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1646 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +36 | CLE: Usual rotation · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +5 Elo | CLE 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.0 | Points scored | 113.812th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 107.84th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.4 | Margin | +6.05th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.0 | Offense rating | 111.813th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 105.92nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.012th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 1st of 3015–4 | Road vs home | 14–77th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–13 | 24–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–12 | 18–13 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 28–14 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.