Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints26
- Amen ThompsonAssists10
- Amen ThompsonRebounds14
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints39
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Max StrusRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–131
- Q40.0Darius Garland makes driving layup135–131
- Q43.1Max Strus defensive rebound135–129
- Q45.1Amen Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2135–129
- Q45.1Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2135–129
- Q45.1Donovan Mitchell personal foul134–129
- Q46.1Max Strus makes 24-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)134–129
- Q49.0Evan Mobley defensive rebound134–126
- Q412.1Amen Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2134–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:46Fred VanVleet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 124 – 117 CLE · HOU 75% → 89% +14HOU 75% → 89%+14 pts
- Q43:14Georges Niang makes 26-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)HOU 124 – 120 CLE · CLE 9% → 23% +14CLE 9% → 23%+14 pts
- Q42:39Donovan Mitchell makes two point shotHOU 124 – 122 CLE · CLE 21% → 35% +15CLE 21% → 35%+15 pts
- Q41:00Amen Thompson makes dunkHOU 127 – 124 CLE · HOU 63% → 85% +23HOU 63% → 85%+23 pts
- Q434.0Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2HOU 128 – 126 CLE · HOU 67% → 82% +15HOU 67% → 82%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML HOU +150 / CLE -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3
- CLE 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 61.7%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -159
- HOU +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 113.5 – 118.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1631 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +35 | +50 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +83 Elo | CLE 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 64.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 121.82nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.8 | Points allowed | 112.011th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.9 | Margin | +9.82nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 119.81st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.0 | Defense rating | 110.210th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.76th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 4th of 3014–6 | Road vs home | 21–21st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–18 | 29–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–13 | 26–13 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 23–20 | 29–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–1 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.