Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints34
- Trae YoungAssists17
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds11
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints20
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists9
- Pascal SiakamRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–132
- Q43.0Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound127–132
- Q43.2Ben Sheppard misses free throw 2 of 2127–132
- Q43.2Ben Sheppard makes free throw 1 of 2127–132
- Q43.2Garrison Mathews personal take foul127–131
- Q44.0Ben Sheppard defensive rebound127–131
- Q47.1Trae Young misses 33-foot three point step back jumpshot127–131
- Q412.0Garrison Mathews enters the game for Dominick Barlow127–131
- Q412.0Trae Young enters the game for Zaccharie Risacher127–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:55Trae Young makes 26-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 116 – 114 IND · ATL 35% → 54% +19ATL 35% → 54%+19 pts
- Q44:25Trae Young makes 31-foot three pointerATL 119 – 116 IND · ATL 41% → 62% +20ATL 41% → 62%+20 pts
- Q44:05Andrew Nembhard makes 8-foot jump bank shotATL 119 – 118 IND · IND 37% → 51% +14IND 37% → 51%+14 pts
- Q43:21Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)ATL 119 – 122 IND · IND 58% → 78% +21IND 58% → 78%+21 pts
- Q42:52Aaron Nesmith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)ATL 119 – 125 IND · IND 79% → 93% +13IND 79% → 93%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- IND -9.5
- ML ATL +310 / IND -400
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -8
- IND 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- IND: Elo 78.0%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- IND -328
- ATL +328 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.5 – 126.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −39 | +2 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +219 Elo | IND 78.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 74.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 115.98th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 114.822nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.2 | Margin | +1.013th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 114.17th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 113.120th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.2 | Pace | 101.013th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 17th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 13–79th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–28 | 24–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 13–13 |
| Underdog | 15–13 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 28–20 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 0–4 IND in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.