Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Zaccharie RisacherPoints30
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds7
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints26
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–137
- Q43.1Zaccharie Risacher makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot115–137
- Q415.1shot clock turnover113–137
- Q415.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound113–137
- Q415.1Jaylon Tyson misses driving layup113–137
- Q439.2Tristan Thompson defensive rebound113–137
- Q441.1Dominick Barlow misses driving floating jump shot113–137
- Q448.0Jaylon Tyson makes two point shot (Emoni Bates assists)113–137
- Q41:04Cavaliers defensive team rebound113–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:56Zaccharie Risacher makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 5 – 0 CLE · ATL 21% → 26% +5ATL 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q19:56Darius Garland makes 28-foot three pointerATL 7 – 5 CLE · CLE 74% → 79% +5CLE 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q19:39Zaccharie Risacher makes 23-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 10 – 5 CLE · ATL 21% → 26% +5ATL 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q18:52Darius Garland makes 30-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)ATL 12 – 10 CLE · CLE 73% → 78% +5CLE 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q25:00Jaylon Tyson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter Jr. assists)ATL 47 – 58 CLE · CLE 88% → 93% +4CLE 88% → 93%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -11.5
- ML ATL +440 / CLE -600
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -9.5
- CLE 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 82.7%, market 82.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -463
- ATL +463 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 115.0 – 126.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1638 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −38 | +46 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +272 Elo | CLE 82.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 80.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 80.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 82.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 121.92nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 112.011th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.8 | Margin | +9.92nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 120.11st of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 110.310th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.2 | Pace | 101.57th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 22–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–27 | 31–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 28–14 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 27–20 | 31–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–3 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.