Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints34
- Ty JeromeAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds15
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints22
- Tyler HerroAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–106
- Q48.1Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound126–106
- Q411.0Craig Porter Jr. blocks Josh Christopher 's 10-foot driving floating jump shot126–106
- Q423.1Georges Niang makes layup (Jaylon Tyson assists)126–106
- Q425.1Jaylon Tyson offensive rebound124–106
- Q425.1Jaylon Tyson misses layup124–106
- Q425.1Jaylon Tyson offensive rebound124–106
- Q431.0Ty Jerome misses 30-foot three point jumper124–106
- Q450.2Bam Adebayo makes 4-foot dunk (Pelle Larsson assists)124–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:26Tyler Herro makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 4 – 3 MIA · MIA 30% → 35% +6MIA 30% → 35%+6 pts
- Q19:14Bam Adebayo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kel'el Ware assists)CLE 8 – 6 MIA · MIA 28% → 33% +6MIA 28% → 33%+6 pts
- Q210:08Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 36 – 28 MIA · CLE 72% → 78% +6CLE 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q28:01Kel'el Ware makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)CLE 38 – 31 MIA · MIA 18% → 24% +5MIA 18% → 24%+5 pts
- Q24:01Georges Niang makes 22-foot three point shot (Jaylon Tyson assists)CLE 49 – 38 MIA · CLE 79% → 84% +5CLE 79% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -5.5
- ML CLE -190 / MIA +160
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5
- CLE 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 69.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -170
- MIA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 115.0 – 109.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1629 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | −15 | CLE: Missing Darius Garland −29 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +144 Elo | CLE 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 70.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.8 | Points scored | 111.021st of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 110.47th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.7 | Margin | +0.614th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.9 | Offense rating | 111.514th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 110.912th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.6 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 3015–6 | Road vs home | 12–915th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+26 Elo- Darius Garland rest−29 Elo
Heat
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–16 | 19–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–14 | 12–14 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–16 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–4 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.