Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints25
- Fred VanVleetAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints21
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Dyson DanielsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–96
- Q40.0Hawks offensive team rebound100–96
- Q40.1Dyson Daniels misses 44-foot three point jumper100–96
- Q42.1Alperen Sengun makes dunk (Amen Thompson assists)100–96
- Q410.2Alperen Sengun enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate98–96
- Q410.2Jalen Green enters the game for Aaron Holiday98–96
- Q410.2Dyson Daniels enters the game for Garrison Mathews98–96
- Q410.2Rockets defensive team rebound98–96
- Q412.2De'Andre Hunter misses 26-foot three point jumper98–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:25Aaron Holiday makes 22-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 42 – 38 ATL · HOU 63% → 70% +7HOU 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q36:56Vit Krejci makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)HOU 58 – 57 ATL · ATL 29% → 39% +9ATL 29% → 39%+9 pts
- Q32:53Keaton Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)HOU 72 – 68 ATL · ATL 20% → 29% +9ATL 20% → 29%+9 pts
- Q446.2Dyson Daniels makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotHOU 98 – 95 ATL · ATL 2% → 10% +8ATL 2% → 10%+8 pts
- Q446.2Dyson Daniels makes free throw 1 of 1HOU 98 – 96 ATL · ATL 10% → 19% +9ATL 10% → 19%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -5.5
- ML HOU -190 / ATL +160
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5.5
- HOU 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 71.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -170
- ATL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 116.5 – 111.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | ATL and HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +22 | −27 | HOU: Missing Tari Eason −16, Steven Adams −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Missing Clint Capela −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +159 Elo | HOU 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 72.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 115.89th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 118.527th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.7 | Margin | −2.821st of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 109.222nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.7 | Defense rating | 111.817th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.9 | Pace | 105.32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3016–6 | Road vs home | 11–1018th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+22 Elo- Tari Eason lower leg−16 Elo
- Steven Adams sore left ankle−3 Elo
Hawks
−27 Elo- Clint Capela back spasms−13 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–18 | 19–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–13 | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–20 | 27–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 0–2 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.