Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints36
- Alperen SengunAssists9
- Amen ThompsonRebounds9
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints28
- Jayson TatumAssists7
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–112
- Q40.0Celtics offensive team rebound114–112
- Q40.0Payton Pritchard misses 59-foot three point jumper114–112
- Q41.1Amen Thompson makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Fred VanVleet assists)114–112
- Q44.1Luke Kornet personal take foul112–112
- Q45.1Luke Kornet enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis112–112
- Q45.1Alperen Sengun enters the game for Tari Eason112–112
- Q45.1Jalen Green enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate112–112
- Q45.1Rockets Full timeout112–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:39Dillon Brooks makes 23-foot three point shot (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 108 – 106 BOS · HOU 36% → 68% +33HOU 36% → 68%+33 pts
- Q411.1Jaylen Brown makes free throw 2 of 2HOU 110 – 110 BOS · BOS 21% → 51% +30BOS 21% → 51%+30 pts
- Q410.1Alperen Sengun makes 3-foot dunk (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 112 – 110 BOS · HOU 49% → 96% +47HOU 49% → 96%+47 pts
- Q45.1Jayson Tatum makes driving layup (Kristaps Porzingis assists)HOU 112 – 112 BOS · BOS <1% → 51% +50BOS <1% → 51%+50 pts
- Q41.1Amen Thompson makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 114 – 112 BOS · HOU 50% → >99% +50HOU 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -5.5
- ML HOU +190 / BOS -230
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -0.5
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.9%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -202
- HOU +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 108.0 – 113.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1620 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | −9 | HOU: Missing Cam Whitmore −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +20 Elo | BOS 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 117.34th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 108.35th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.8 | Margin | +8.93rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 117.03rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.5 | Defense rating | 108.16th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.0 | Pace | 99.123rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3015–6 | Road vs home | 15–88th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+35 Elo- Cam Whitmore illness−4 Elo
Celtics
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–18 | 19–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–13 | 19–25 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 24–20 | 20–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 0–3 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.