Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints24
- Jaylen BrownAssists6
- Luke KornetRebounds10
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints22
- Kyrie IrvingAssists5
- Daniel GaffordRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–107
- Q421.2Kessler Edwards defensive rebound122–107
- Q424.1Jordan Walsh misses 23-foot three point jumper122–107
- Q439.1Luke Kornet defensive rebound122–107
- Q442.1Quentin Grimes misses 24-foot three point jumper122–107
- Q445.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper offensive rebound122–107
- Q449.1Kessler Edwards misses 24-foot three point jumper122–107
- Q41:10Payton Pritchard enters the game for Jaylen Brown122–107
- Q41:10Jordan Walsh traveling122–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:41Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three pointer (Maxi Kleber assists)BOS 10 – 19 DAL · DAL 37% → 43% +6DAL 37% → 43%+6 pts
- Q16:03Kristaps Porzingis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 14 – 19 DAL · BOS 59% → 65% +6BOS 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q211:01Jayson Tatum makes 27-foot three pointer (Derrick White assists)BOS 30 – 29 DAL · BOS 69% → 75% +6BOS 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q311:03Spencer Dinwiddie makes 27-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)BOS 59 – 55 DAL · DAL 15% → 21% +6DAL 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q310:41Derrick White makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 62 – 55 DAL · BOS 79% → 85% +6BOS 79% → 85%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML BOS -400 / DAL +300
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −26.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.8%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -320
- DAL +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 117.5 – 109.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1606 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −41 | BOS: Usual rotation · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | BOS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +2 Elo | DAL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 71.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 115.311th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 111.911th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.8 | Margin | +3.39th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 113.88th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.1 | Defense rating | 110.511th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.111th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3016–6 | Road vs home | 13–914th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–27 | 23–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–25 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–26 | 21–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–1 DAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.
- Jun 17DAL 88 @ BOS 106PlayoffsPicked BOS 64%Hit
- Jun 14BOS 84 @ DAL 122PlayoffsPicked BOS 61%Miss
- Jun 12BOS 106 @ DAL 99PlayoffsPicked BOS 57%Hit
- Jun 9DAL 98 @ BOS 105PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- Jun 6DAL 89 @ BOS 107PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Hit
- Mar 1DAL 110 @ BOS 138Picked BOS 67%Hit
- Jan 22BOS 119 @ DAL 110Picked BOS 51%Hit