Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints22
- Andrew NembhardAssists8
- Aaron NesmithRebounds7
Jazz- John CollinsPoints21
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists11
- Walker KesslerRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–111
- Q43.0(00:03.1) [Pacers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)112–111
- Q43.2Keyonte George makes 23-foot three point shot (Isaiah Collier assists)112–111
- Q45.1Jazz Full timeout112–108
- Q45.1Pascal Siakam makes 5-foot driving dunk (Andrew Nembhard assists)112–108
- Q47.1Obi Toppin enters the game for Ben Sheppard110–108
- Q47.1Tyrese Haliburton enters the game for Thomas Bryant110–108
- Q47.1Isaiah Collier enters the game for Walker Kessler110–108
- Q47.1Pacers Full timeout110–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:09Pascal Siakam makes 13-foot step back jumpshotIND 103 – 102 UTAH · IND 47% → 63% +16IND 47% → 63%+16 pts
- Q42:41Jordan Clarkson makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotIND 103 – 104 UTAH · UTAH 37% → 54% +17UTAH 37% → 54%+17 pts
- Q42:24Thomas Bryant makes two point shotIND 105 – 104 UTAH · IND 45% → 63% +18IND 45% → 63%+18 pts
- Q41:45John Collins makes dunkIND 105 – 106 UTAH · UTAH 36% → 57% +21UTAH 36% → 57%+21 pts
- Q459.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotIND 108 – 106 UTAH · IND 38% → 79% +40IND 38% → 79%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- IND -6.5
- ML IND -245 / UTAH +200
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5
- IND 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- IND: Elo 69.9%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- IND -213
- UTAH +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 124.5 – 118.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | +12 | IND: Missing Myles Turner −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +146 Elo | IND 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 71.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 71.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 111.220th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 118.527th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −7.328th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 109.523rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 116.729th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 4–1730th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−3 Elo- Myles Turner right ankle injury−14 Elo
Jazz
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–23 | 23–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–14 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders | 27–20 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–1 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.